GTA Condos: Declining Construction, Future Supply Crunch & Scheduled Completions
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) condo market is witnessing a major slowdown in construction, and forecasts indicate a potential housing supply shortage in the coming years. With fewer new projects breaking ground, scheduled completions will play a crucial role in shaping market trends. Here’s what you need to know.
- Fewer GTA Condos Under Construction – What’s Happening?
Condo construction in the GTA peaked at 104,751 units but has since dropped significantly:
✔ Q4 2022: 104,751 condos under construction
✔ Q4 2023: 99,105 condos under construction
✔ Q4 2024: 78,742 condos under construction
Why Is Construction Slowing?
- High interest rates making it difficult for developers to secure financing.
- Weaker pre-construction sales due to affordability concerns.
- Rising construction costs, delaying or canceling planned projects.
- Future Forecast: Construction Expected to Drop Further
🔹 Q3 2024: 88,152 units under construction
🔹 Q4 2024: 78,742 units
🔹 End of 2025: Forecast to drop to 48,742 units
🔹 End of 2026: Forecast to decline further to 28,742 units
This significant drop means that fewer new condos will enter the market, leading to higher demand and potential price increases in the future.
- Scheduled Condo Completions: What to Expect
Despite the slowdown in new builds, a surge of condo completions is expected in 2024 and 2025, particularly in the 905 and 416 areas:
- 2024-2025: The highest number of completions in years, with over 30,000 new units scheduled.
- 2026-2028: Completions taper off, signaling a reduction in available supply.
What Does This Mean?
✔ Short-Term Opportunity: More condo completions in 2024-2025 mean buyers may find better deals and incentives.
✔ Long-Term Supply Shortage: By 2026-2028, fewer completions could drive higher prices and rental demand.
✔ Investment Potential: Buyers who invest now may see significant appreciation as supply tightens post-2025.
- What This Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors
For Buyers
✔ More units are coming in 2024-2025, offering more choices and potential discounts.
✔ Waiting too long may lead to higher prices as supply dwindles after 2026.
For Sellers
✔ Short-term competition from new completions, but long-term appreciation expected.
✔ 2026-2028 may shift the market to a seller’s advantage due to limited supply.
For Investors
✔ Buying now could be a smart move, as fewer projects will be available in 2-3 years.
✔ The rental market will likely surge, making condo investments even more lucrative.
Final Thoughts: Should You Buy Now?
With GTA condo construction slowing and fewer projects in the pipeline, now is the time to act before inventory shrinks further. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, positioning yourself ahead of the market shifts can help you maximize value.
📞 Want to explore the best condo deals in the GTA? Contact me today!
Source: Tridel Communities
